The State Duma election: primary statistical estimations
Here is the picture with data from 96,840 polling stations (107.9 million registered voters out of 109.2 million known to CEC).
Whole Russia
On the left is the chart of votes given for parties by 1% turnout intervals. The thin line is the chart of votes for all parties except the United Russia (UR), scaled so that it coincides with the UR chart at an early stage. With an assumption (which is not fully accurate) that all falsifications for UR originate from stuffing, the shaded area represents the amount of stuffing.
On the right are shares received by parties depending on turnout by polling stations, where each polling station is a set of dots of different colours, one colour per party. The dense core represents the presumably unfalsified polling stations. The centre of the UR core is established via Minimum Covariance Determinant method, where polling stations were attributed weights by the number of voters, the cut-off threshold 50% (the ellipsis shows the cut-off dots). Correspondingly, the UR core centre coordinates help to estimate the real turnout and the real UR outcome.
At unfalsified polling stations, the turnout is 38% on average (like in 2016), and UR gets between 31% and 33% by two estimations (like in 2011). Notably, spikes of votes at whole-number percentages have decreased; yet, they are still well above the significance threshold, as calculated by Kobak.
The spike of 95% turnout is the e-voting in Moscow.
Whole Russia
Regions
Both methods break in strongly falsified regions. On the right, it happens at the fraud level about 50%. On the left, it can hold on longer; however, the accuracy is unpredictable.
Altai Krai
The State Duma election 2021
The Republic of Altai
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Amur Oblast
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Arkhangelsk Oblast
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Astrakhan Oblast
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Republic of Bashkortostan
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Belgorod Oblast
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Bryansk Oblast
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Republic of Buryatia
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Vladimir Oblast
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Volgograd Oblast
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Vologda Oblast
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Voronezh Oblast
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Republic of Dagestan
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Jewish Autonomous Oblast
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Zabaikalsky Krai
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Ivanovo Oblast
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Republic of Ingushetia
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Irkutsk Oblast
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Kaliningrad Oblast
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Republic of Kalmykia
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Kaluga Oblast
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Kamchatka Krai
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Karachai-Circassian Republic
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Kabardino-Balkar Republic
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Republic of Karelia
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Kemerovo Oblast – Kuzbass
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Kirov Oblast
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Republic of Komi
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Kostroma Oblast
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Krasnodar Krai
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Krasnoyarsk Krai
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Republic of Crimea
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Kurgan Oblast
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Kursk Oblast
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Leningrad Oblast
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Lipetsk Oblast
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Magadan Oblast
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Mari El Republic
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Republic of Mordovia
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Moscow Oblast
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Moscow City
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Murmansk Oblast
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Nenets Autonomous District
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Nizhny Novgorod Oblast
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Novgorod Oblast
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Novosibirsk Oblast
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Omsk Oblast
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Orenburg Oblast
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Oryol Oblast
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Penza Oblast
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Perm Krai
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Saint Petersburg City
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Primorsky Krai
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Pskov Oblast
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Rostov Oblast
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Ryazan Oblast
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Samara Oblast
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Saratov Oblast
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Sakha Republic (Yakutia)
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Sakhalin Oblast
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Sverdlovsk Oblast
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Sevastopol City
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Republic of Northern Ossetia – Alania
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Smolensk Oblast
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Stavropol Krai
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Tambov Oblast
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Republic of Tatarstan
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Tver Oblast
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Tomsk Oblast
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Tula Oblast
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Republic of Tyva
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Tyumen Oblast
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Udmurt Republic
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Ulyanovsk Oblast
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Khabarovsk Krai
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Republic of Khakassia
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Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District – Yugra
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Chelyabinsk Oblast
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Chechen Republic
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Chuvash Republic – Chuvashia
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Chukot Autonomous District
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Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District
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Yaroslavl Oblast
The State Duma election 2021
